Horizon Scanning

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Horizon Scanning

With Horizon Scanning, we systematically examine potential threats, opportunities and likely developments – including those at the margins of current thinking – using our own databases and research literature.

We seek out “weak signals” of the future - emerging ideas that may challenge the status quo – and identify “wild cards” – shocks to the system which could lead to a step change.

One useful framework is the ‘Three Horizons’ model that shows how influential factors that dominate now are replaced over time. Typically before doing the “Three Horizons” exercise we get you to look back at the changes to your industry over the last 20 years. When you realise how much has changed before, you become more aware of the future prospects of change. And it’s usually fun too!

In one Horizon Scanning project we are currently working, on we are reviewing dozens of sources: magazines relevant to the topic, online newsletters, RSS feeds, Linked In groups and Twitter searches. From these sources we create dozens of scanning “hits”, each with brief summaries, a link to the source and an assessment of importance and time horizon. These are put together to produce a monthly bulletin of key developments, organised into a “natural agenda”. Over the year these bulletins build into a substantial database of valuable insights into current trends

On top of that we are writing quarterly assessments of the policy implications of these developments, focussing on actions necessary to remain responsive to change.

SAMI Consulting - The home of scenario planning

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site last updated
16 May 2018

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