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Case Study: Scenarios for India and China: the Implications for the City of London

Background

SAMI Consulting and Oxford Analytica worked together on a project for the Corporation of London to:

  • develop alternative scenarios concerning the potential long-term future development of India and China for 2015;

  • assess the possible impacts, both positive and negative, of such patterns of development upon the City of London financial services sector through a series of workshops and interviews;

  • consider what further analysis may be necessary and what actions might be taken to maximise any potential opportunities and minimise any threats;

  • prepare an overall report on the project and its conclusions that can be used to stimulate wider debate and appropriate action among City financial institutions, government and other interested parties.

Additional sponsors were Morgan Stanley, the University Superannuation Scheme, and ABN AMBRO.

SAMI's role

We commissioned Oxford Analytica to develop scenarios for China and for India. These were produced by separate teams, with a joint SAMI/Oxford Analytica workshop to brainstorm the main drivers and a Oxford Analytica team to write up the scenario stories.

We held three workshops in the City to explore the implications of the scenarios for differing sectors of financial services. We also discussed the implications with key players, the Bank of England, Association of British Insurers, the China-Britain Business Council, Lloyds of London. These implications formed the bulk of the recommendations in the report.

What happened next

The report (96 pages) was published by the City of London in October 2006. (http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk.) The main report can be found in the City of London's archive here (753kb) and the executive summary here (293kb).

They can also be found on our website, full report and the executive summary.

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