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Published Articles by SAMI Consulting

  • Drivers of Change

    We have pulled together a compendium of global Drivers of Change, based on work we have done over the years on drivers and trends. We will continue to update the list in the future. (Current update is September 2018)

  • More Than Just a Crystal Ball

    Gill Ringland, in Finance and Management March 2017 explains how forecasting is incredibly important for finance directors and, when done correctly, is much more beneficial than just approximate prediction. (Not yet available on-line but Gill has some paper copies)

  • Britain after Brexit

    In a paper published in Quality World in February 2016, Natasha Cowan asks SAMI chief Executive Gill Ringland how you can help guide your organisation through the split with the European Union and why quality professionals are well positioned to help industry take the plunge. (Not yet available on-line but Gill has some paper copies)

  • The fourth industrial revolution and challenges for government

    This paper describing the issues facing government as a result of artificial intelligence and other technological changes was prepared by David Lye, fellow and director of SAMI Consulting, and was published by BRINK. (BRINK is a digital platform which delivers insights on risk and reslience to leaders worldwide.)

  • Scenario Planning - A primer

    This paper describing the whys and hows of Scenario Planning was prepared by Gill Ringland from a module of an online workbench on Strategic Foresight in 2016.

  • Some snapshots of 2040

    This report is also part of SAMI's 25 anniversary celebrations and is a distillation of blogs looking forward to 2040 on key factors affecting the future.

  • What works and what does not – thoughts from the front line of “strategy with a view of the future” over the last 25 years

    This report is part of SAMI's 25 anniversary celebrations and is a distillation of blogs looking back over the 25 years.

  • Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

    This report, in which SAMI (John Reynolds) participated, describes how scenario planning was used to identify the dynamics underpinning the resilience of several agricultural sectors to animal disease. It is available as a corrected proof on the Elsevier / Science Direct website.

  • Whitehall: Capacity To Address Future Challenges"

    Evidence submission from SAMI Consulting by David Lye, SAMI Consulting,October 2014.
    The Public Administration Select Committee (PASC) called for written evidence on the issue of Whitehall’s capacity to anticipate, to analyse, to assess, and to respond to the most significant challenges, risks and opportunities facing the UK in the next decade or so. This short submission identifies some of the key challenges and risks facing the Government.

  • Scenarios: A Hero’s Journey across Turbulent Systems"

    By Wendy Schultz, SAMI; Christian Crews, AndSpace Consulting USA; and Richard Lunn, Vision Foresight Strategy LLC USA, published in Journal of Futures Studies, September 2012, 17(1): 129-140.
    The authors look at a process which builds scenarios up inductively: via layers of timeline mapping using the Three Horizons framework; via implications mapping using Futures Wheels augmented with the Verge Ethnographic Futures Framework; and via influence mapping using systems thinking.

  • " K.I.S.S."

    By Richard Walsh, SAMI Director and Fellow, published in Cover magazine September 2012.
    The review of Simple Financial Products is a significant strategic development in the protection sector.
    Richard highlights some key issues and a few problems in the making.

  • "Shifting Patterns in the Pharmaceutical Industry"

    By Michael Owen, SAMI Chairman, published as a Chatham House briefing paper in The World’s Industrial Transformation Series, in October 2011.

  • "A World Where Leaders Lead"

    By Tricia Lustig, published in HR Director, Issue 78.

  • "Why and How the 21st Century is Different and What Organisations Can Do"

    By Gill Ringland, published in The European Business Review 14 January - February 2011

  • "The Role of Scenarios in Strategic Foresight"

    by Gill Ringland, published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, special issue on Strategic Insight, Volume 77, Number 9, November 2010 (see index)

  • "A system for continuous organizational renewal"

    by Oliver Sparrow and Gill Ringland, Published in STRATEGY & LEADERSHIP journal VOL. 38 NO. 4 2010, pp. 34-41.
    Discusses the advantages of and the mechanisms of the purposeful self-renewing organization (PS-RO).
    To arrange for a transcript please contact Lynda McGill

  • "A Nation of Discontent - What could the 20th of October 2010 Mean for the Utilities Industry?"

    by Gill Ringland, Published in Utility Week w/c 8 November 2010.

  • "A Nation of Discontent - What could the Comprehensive Spending Review mean for the Health Insurance industry?"

    Richard Walsh, in Cover Magazine, December 2010.

  • "The role of Appreciative Inquiry in meeting the challenges of the next decade"

    Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland July 2010. The next decade will present many uncertainties and organisational challenges on an unprecedented scale. As the financial crisis winds its way through the system, a new world order is being revealed. There will be no return to business as usual. This article explores the changes in the external world, outlines how organisations can cope with the uncertainty these changes bring, and in particular the role that Appreciative Inquiry can play. It is based on the frameworks discussed in more detail in “Beyond Crisis” by Gill Ringland, Oliver Sparrow and Patricia Lustig.

  • "Frameworks for coping with Post-normal Times: a response to Ziauddin Sardar"

    By Gill Ringland in "Futures" Volume 42, Issue 6, published in August 2010. A copy of the article is available through Lynda McGill.

  • “Ready for renewal?”

    In March 2010, "Ready for renewal", an article by Colin Fletcher and Gill Ringland in “The Treasurer”, the journal of the Association of Corporate Treasurers envisages a very different economic order coming into operation over the next twenty years and explains how businesses can adapt successfully.

  • " Risk and rapid change"

    In AgendaNi (March 2010) an interview with Gill Ringland: "Scenario planner Gill Ringland talks about the key risks facing organisations in today’s world and why ideas need to be tested, not just dreamed up."

  • "Developing the Learning Habit

    For Business Leadership Review, here (January 2010) by SAMI Associate Elizabeth Lank.

  • "How Scenario Thinking can support Innovation"

    In The Journal of Creativity and Innovation, by Gill Ringland.

  • "Talent management needs to be future-proofed"

    In Developing HR Strategy,by Patricia Lustig. Hard copies available from Patricia on

  • "Potential drivers of Future Environmental Issues" and "Wind Tunnelling. The Rapid Scenario-based Testing of Emerging Issues"

    By Martin Duckworth, Jo Ravetz, John Reynolds in Environmental Scientist in July 2009.
    A copy of the full magazine is available here.

  • "Rapid and Inclusive Strategy Development"

    By Geoff Cox 2009 (Contains parts of a paper first published in Strategy Magazine November 2004 Issue 4)

  • "How Scenario Thinking can support Innovation"

    By Gill Ringland in the Journal of Creativity and Innovation,(Q1 2009 Korea).

  • "Talent management needs to be future-proofed"

    By Patricia Lustig in Developing HR Strategy (Q1 2009)
    Hard copies available from Patricia on

  • "a href="41evfletcherwhitherhousing.html" target="blank"> Whither UK Housing?"

    Colin Fletcher, SAMI Fellow, has prepared a short note on the UK Housing market in the wake of the financial crisis in the UK.

  • " The Future of Communications: 2015"

    SAMI Consulting got together with NetStrategics, specialists in communications industry regulation and strategy, and DSI, focused on helping organisations make strategic decisions, to map out some scenarios based on the key trends and developments that are driving the telecommunications industry forward.

  • "Scenario as a Tool in Management Development"

    By Gill Ringland and Michael Owen
    The scenario creation process can provide a team with shared insights and a shared language. This has led to the use of scenarios as a management development tool, and a team-building tool. The methodology is the same. Here two examples are considered of using scenarios for the development of young professional managers who have been identified as ‘high flyers

  • "Using scenarios to improve Marketing"

    By Andrew Curry, Gill Ringland and Laurie Young in Strategy and Leadership . Reprints are available from Gill Ringland at Sami

  • Should we believe the IEA’s scenarios for 2050?

    By Gill Ringland of SAMI Consulting
    In its report on world strategic energy options for last July’s G8 summit in St. Petersburg the International Energy Agency (IEA) used scenarios to describe how energy technologies could develop between now and 2050, in support of the G8 Plan of Action. This article onsiders whether the IEA’s scenarios fulfilled the role of exploring qualitatively different futures, or whether they were trapped in the assumptions of the present.

  • "Positive Approaches to Change -Applications of Solutions Focus and Appreciative Inquiry at Work"

    Edited by Mark McKergow and Jenny Clarke, SolutionsBooks (March 2005)
    Patricia Lustig of SAMI Consulting contributed to chapters entitled:
    "Organisational Constellations meets Appreciative Inquiry" - A creative experiment in integrating two organisational transformation (OT) disciplines
    and "Dreams do come true" - Community building with Appreciative Inquiry in a small Nepalese village
    Download flyer for Positive Approaches to Change, here

  • "The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context",

    By SAMI Principal Dr Wendy Schultz in Foresight Vol 8 No 4.
    This paper won the award for best paper in "Foresight" in 2006.
    The main point of the paper is to point out that there is a cultural contradiction between horizon scanning and traditional research. Traditional research looks for consensus, is mostly mono-disciplinary and theoretically grounded. Horizon scanning for emerging issues is based often on one or two cases, and experts will often violently attack reports of emerging issues of change, as they represent challenges to current paradigms and structures of expertise, power, and entitlement; are often noticed initially by fringe sources and challenge previous theoretical structures, forcing the construction of new theories. This cultural contradiction is one of the reasons that organisations - whether public or private sector - find it hard to react effectively to the results of horizon scanning.

  • Burning Issues

    By Martin Duckworth, Utility Week, February 2006.
    Among scientists, there is more or less a consensus that climate change is real and happening now. They agree that the models are getting better and more credible and that the IPCC climate projections over the next century are reasonable, although a big margin of uncertainty still remains. In conjunction with the Futures Forum, we looked at four scenarios where the likely outcome was determined by public attitudes and by whether continuing research found the climate change threat to be limited or serious.

  • As Radical as Money

    In an article in GC, September 2006, Geoff Llewellyn argues that the consequences of the identity card could prove as profound as those that came from the development of fiduciary money

  • An uncertain future for management consulting

    A paper by Gill Ringland and Azfar Shaukat, 2004. What will the world of management consultancy look like in 2020? After decades of astonishing growth in which the management consultancy industry has trebled in size to $120 billion per year over eight years, the future looks decidedly uncertain.A variety of complex forces have converged,squeezing the industry in many dimensions simultaneously, with far-reaching implications to its structure and future.

  • Scenario planning: answering the "so what" question for operating managers

    This paper by Gill Ringland was published in "Strategy & Leadership" in November 2003. Scenario thinkers and operational managers do not find it easy to communicate with each other. This paper discusses ways in which scenarios can be used in the line units of the organisation and the role of strategists and corporate planners in making this bridge. It uses case studies to illustrate five applications: to generating options, portfolio management, business plans, market planning and pattern recognition.

  • Scenarios For The Future Of Europe’s Regions

    This paper by Alexander Fink, of the Scenario Management International, Germany and Michael Owen, of St Andrews Management Institute, UK, was presented at the World Future Society Conference in July 2003. In November 2002, a scenario planning project was undertaken to explore "The Future of Europe’s Regions" - an issue which will assume increasing importance as the process of EU enlargement moves ahead in the coming years.

    Participants came from 13 European countries. The scenario horizon extended to twenty years ahead; and a fairly pragmatic definition of what constitutes a European "region" was adopted, to embrace both administrative and cultural dimensions. More than seventy separate factors were initially identified: these spanned influences deriving from within the European regions; influences emanating from the European environment that surrounds the European regions; and factors that contain implications for the development of the general, more global sphere that surrounds the European regions.

    These factors produced five coherent, credible scenarios of how Europe’s regions could develop over the next twenty years. The scenarios highlighted the key driving forces that will determine the outcomes for Europe’s regions over the time-scale. The contradictions and paradoxes exposed pose many profound challenges for European citizens and policy makers, and challenge the historic US-Europe relationship.

  • Application of scenario planning to corporate social responsibility

    This paper by Gill Ringland and Adrian Davies was published in the Corporate Social Responsibility Monitor in March 2003. It examines the role of scenario planning in corporate social responsibility, giving examples from real life. It shows that scenario planning provides a process for structuring the development of CSR policies and controlling their implementation.

  • Using scenarios to focus R&D

    This paper by Gill Ringland was published in "Strategy & Leadership" in January 2003. It focuses on the role of scenarios in planning Research and Development (R&D). R&D programmes often focus on the technology, which is relatively forecastable. But the output of R&D programmes will enter a world in which lifestyles and society are changing. By using scenarios to explore alternative views of the future, R&D programmes can be designed to anticipate change, to watch for signs of the changes, and to be more robust. The paper describes in some detail an example of using scenarios for an Information and Communication Technology R&D programme. The implications for corporate planners are drawn out.

  • "Scenarios in Business”

    By Gill Ringland
    John Wiley, April 2002, ISBN 0-470-84382-9

  • Direct-to Consumer Communications of Rx Medicines

    Mike Owen is the joint author with Gary Lyon (Nicholas Hall & Company, 2002)

  • "Scenarios in Public Policy”

    By Gill Ringland
    John Wiley, April 2002, ISBN 0-470-84383-7

  • Making the most of scenario planning

    A paper by Gill Ringland, March 2001. Scenarios are beginning to be widely used in the public sector, as well as in business.

  • A Strategic Approach to Corporate Governance

    by Adrian Davies (Gower 1999) This book builds on earlier experience and research to achieve a new synthesis. A further book "The Practice of Corporate Governance" is due out in early 2006.

  • Scenarios for Scotland - A Journey to 2015

    A sponsored scenario planning study of Scotland's future, published in 1999, prepared by SAMI Consulting, St Andrews University and Strathclyde University.

  • The Strategic Role of Marketing

    by Adrian Davies (McGraw-Hill 1995).

  • Strategic Leadership

    by Adrian Davies (Woodhead Faulkner 1991)

  • Other papers by Gill Ringland are:

    "Scenario Planning”, for Bloomsbury Business Encarta, April 2001.
    "Scenarios in ICL”, a chapter for “Prospectives Etudes”, March 2001
    "Innovation in communicating ideas about the future”, International Journal of Innovation, March 2000
    "Why Forecasts go Wrong”, Long Range Planning, October 1999
    "London in 2020”, Planning in London, March 1999
    "London in 2020”, Gresham College, Barnards Inn, Holborn, London, February 1999
    "Why we get forecasts wrong”, Entretiens Science & Defence, November 1998
    "Changes in Telecoms Traffic”, with Nuno Caldeira, Handbook on Telecoms in the 21st Century for Telecoms Managers, TUA, February 1998
    "Why are planners talking Scenarios?”, Accountancy, January 1998
    "Scenario Planning – Managing for the future”, John Wiley, ISBN 0-471-97790-X, November 1997

    For more information, please contact:

SAMI Consulting - The home of scenario planning

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Foresight and Strategy is a monthly email round-up of issues we think might interest strategists and futurists.

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site last updated
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