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Past copies of eSAMI our monthly e-newsletter, are available. For other years go to eSAMI
We are planning a series of training events to help “robust decisions in uncertain times”, as well as our next webinar on The Future of Work in Health, on Wednesday 17 May 2017. It is based on our recent Forum. Click the link for details.
Following the success of our two-day workshop on Futures Thinking skills in March, we are pleased to announce that it will be held again in central London on 3-4 July 2017. The workshop follows a hands-on format which allows participants to practise the techniques of Horizon Scanning and Scenario Planning, in a friendly setting with a small class size and expert tuition. Feedback from attendees in March included: “I thoroughly enjoyed the course. It has fully met my objectives. Thank you very much for an engaging and interactive training on scenario planning.”
In August, we are repeating our successful 2 day Bootcamp which introduces a range of futures thinking tools, led by SAMI Principal Dr Wendy Schultz at Wolfson College Oxford.
One day training courses in October on “Dealing with uncertainty” led by SAMI Associate Professor Garry Honey and “Superforecasting” led by Professor Paul Moxey, will both be in Central London.
A one day training course in November on “Overcoming cognitive bias” will be led by Professor Paul Moxey in Central London
And in January 2018 we plan a two day Bootcamp on futures thinking tools in Central London.
We should also like to mention two dates for a one day course “Foresight on Africa” – 20th June and 6th July, details from Warwick University.
Flying cars have hit the news again with several announcements of prototypes. An electric VTOL version from German company Lilium (backed by investors who include Skype co-founder Niklas Zennström) has been tested. Dutch start-up Pal-V demonstrated a prototype that satisfies air and road regulations and is due for commercial launch in 2018 . And a very weird looking piece of Heath Robinson design was shown off by Larry Page . The idea has been around for ages – is it finally becoming reality?
China continues its investment in robotics – it will account for more than 30% of the worldwide robotics spending in 2020 – with the manufacturing sector dominating.
If you haven’t got your head around Blockchain yet, try this TED talk on how it will radically transform the economy.
Will non-invasive “neurostimulation” enhance our ability to learn? DARPA is trying to find out.
New technology is sweeping through the medical profession – this article gives 60 examples of medical applications of robotics and AI, VR and AR, smartphones and social media, sensors and 3D printing, nanotech and genomics.
In the world of economics, the idea of basic universal income is becoming ever-more popular – one TED speaker called it “venture capital for the people” – while another economist regards it as a natural evolution of economic systems.
Recently our blogs have focused on decision-making and reputation management. Our interest in these areas was piqued by two books we read that explored the subject of
decisions and how these are made
which then led us to consider how
training in decision-making
can be supported. In turn this led to considering how decisions about problems and crises can so easily
damage reputations and brand
As we get back to work after the Easter break, some news of SAMI and colleagues.
SAMI with Global Foresight & Futures organised a Forum on the Future of work in Health to 2040, with reactions like ”terrific event” making us realise that foresight approaches really do help insights! We will publish some of the output soon.
An article by Cat Tully, Alun Rhyddersh and Peter Glenday of the School of International Futures, “Strategic foresight can make the future a safer place" , has been published by Chatham House. This was provoked by an earlier article in Chatham House’s The World Today– ‘The Lost Art of Leadership’ – on how government and corporate leaders were failing to cope with an increasingly unpredictable world. The authors, Nik Gowing and Chris Langdon, opened with the almost unthinkable ideas that Britain might vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump could be sitting in the Oval Office.
SAMI have recently launched a new proposition, providing support to organisations looking to use Futurescaper to help with their Horizon Scanning and Drivers Analysis . Based on our experience of working with Futurescaper on projects such as Horizon Scanning for Defra, the offering provides guidance not only in the practicalities of setting up Futurescaper, but also ongoing support with the data sourcing and analysis.
We are partnering with Unlocking Foresight and Atkins on a series of monthly webinars. The first is at 17:00 hours London time on 26th April, on “The Future of Cities”. This takes a broad look at the role of community and cities, prompted by Ban-ki Moon’s “Our struggle for global sustainability will be won or lost in cities” and the recent Scientific American article (Varun Sivaram, May 2017) pointing out that 10 of the 20 most polluted cities are in India. The second at the same time on May 17th will be on the Future of Work in Health, and the 3rd on 5th July on Scenarios for Europe. For more details, and to sign up, click here .
The recent election results in Turkey should not have been a surprise – see a description of a 1997 scenario study on Turkey by SAMI Fellows Adrian Davies and Dr Adam Scott (It's the first case study in the book)
Innovate UK has identified some interesting applications of the Internet of Things.
The Transport Catapult has been looking at autonomous marine vehicles , from oil tankers to data collecting mini-submarines.
And continuing with robots and AI, PwC is predicting that the U.K. will lose 30 percent of its jobs to automation in the next 15 years.
In advance of our workshop on the future of work in health on 6th April we published a short series of blogs. Firstly looking at the
use of technology in health
, followed by an examination of the
impact of other STEEP categories
and finally looking at how these currents of
change may affect health and social care
. We will report back on thoughts for the workshop in future blogs. In other recent blogs we looked at the use of
scenarios in strategy development
the future of mobility
dealing with uncertainty
As the UK approaches BREXIT and is focused on internal struggles, we are fascinated by the happenings in Europe – for instance, President Junckers' speech on a new blueprint for Europe on 1 March. And we look back at some scenarios to 2050 that were developed in 2010 on the future of Europe , for the Research and Innovation Directorate, which are prescient.
There is a thoughtful look at trends shaping the MiddleEast in a podcast (sound only) I heard recently from Tarek Osman’s talk at the London School of Economics (LSE).
We still have places available on our futures courses in March. A half-day “Introduction to Futures Thinking” on March 30th 2017 aimed at those wishing to understand the basics and decide how the approach might work in their organisation; and a “hands-on” two-day workshop for strategists where you learn to build scenarios yourself –March 27/28th 2017. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
And we can now announce the details of our Future of Work in Health Forum : this is on 6th April in central London, and David Lye (email@example.com) can provide more detail if you are interested.
AI advances continue to surprise with even poker pros being beaten ; how does the system spot a bluff?
Cybersecurity remains a concern. Microsoft President, is calling for a digital Geneva Convention to protect civilians from nation-state attacks in times of peace.
And moving on from technology, we again see predictions of increased longevity . How will that affect healthcare, retirement, working profiles etc?
We've published blogs on a wide range of subjects over the past few weeks. Firstly there was our
update on the issue of Brexit
which looked at some of the uncertainties arising from recent political events. Then, continuing the Brexit theme, we looked at the impact of this on
the outlook for cities going forward
. We shifted gear for a moment to look at some of the impacts of the
new bereavements benefits scheme
and, finally, shared some thoughts that came out of a workshop on the
impact that machine learning might have on the work skills
required in the future.
Well, we certainly live in interesting times – and as our clients move from a focus on BREXIT to what is happening to the EU, life gets even more complex.
Meanwhile, I was invited by Joe Ravetz, SAMI Principal and co-Director of the Centre for Urban Resilience and Energy, to lead a seminar on the the future of cities at the newly launched Manchester Urban Institute recently. Joe’s new book City III is due to be published later this year.
We found that one of our most visited blogs was The Airport of the Future. So here is a link to the blogs by Helios on other aspects of aviation
Andrew Curry of Next Wave Futures has published a summary of some of the futures that New Scientist discussed in its 60th anniversary issue in November 2016:
SAMI Fellow David Lye has a recent article, The fourth industrial revolution and challenges for government in BRINK which describes the issues facing government as a result of artificial intelligence and other tech changes.
Our January training events were disrupted by train strikes, but we still have places available on the courses in March. A half-day “Introduction to Futures Thinking” on March 30th 2017 aimed at those wishing to understand the basics and decide how the approach might work in their organisation; and a “hands-on” two-day workshop for strategists where you learn to build scenarios yourself –March 27/28th 2017. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
And we can now announce the details of our Future of Work in Health event on 6 April 2017.
Workplace monitoring is moving from fiction to reality , with a company called Humanyze (clever!) a front runner in the UK. Actually of course, as the Guardian article pointed out, there has been a long tradition of trying to monitor and optimise workers’ activities – from time and motion studies, satirised in I’m All Right Jack , through software to give tight control of call centres and on to the much greater power of today’s wearables – so there’s no doubt about companies’ motivation to take this further. Lots of ethical issues to sort there.
AI ethics also remains an issue, with academics calling for an AI watchdog
The hype around autonomous cars continues, but some in the industry think that full autonomy (known as “Level 5”) may not be happening any time soon. Elon Musk however, claims they’ll be here within 6 months. Even where semi-autonomous cars are designed to hand control back to a driver in some situations, a study at the University of Southampton showed this handover could take as much as 25 seconds – potentially a very long distance in a critical situation.
More adventurously, Airbus are planning autonomous flying cars , at least in prototype, this year –how that will work with all those delivery drones soon to be around?
January 23rd was the start of Blockchain week #blockchainweek . Lots of good examples of how Blockchain can reduce costs and improve authentication from several industries. Gartner rates Blockchain as at the peak of the hype cycle – where will it settle down?
At least 9 of the 13 “black swans” identified by Barclays Research relate to geo-political and economic uncertainty, and we could all think of many more. Looks like a bumpy ride in 2017 – how is your scenario planning doing?
Our blogs this week have been diverse. To start the year we have a topical explanation of why 2017 will probably be worse than 2016 with
Expect even stranger events in 2017 - why citizenship is nearly dead.
Followed by two on care and welfare,
A fairer way to fund long term health care
What a month for welfare reform and income protection
. Finally a look at
Diagnosing and future-proofing governance and risk
At this time of year there is a plethora of articles & posts on 10 things that will change the world – what’s hot in technology – some I always look at are Scientific American for “10 ideas that will change the world” and articles on biotech such as:
SAMI Associate Tricia Lustig has published a second blog on Huffington Post, "What is a leader to do? Find the right questions".
I also follow a thoughtful newsletter on India from Deepak Lalwani and with BREXIT looming we may all want to be better informed about India ---.”
We have prepared a summary of the the Forum on "Diagnosing Governance and Risk Management then Future Proofing Them" on 16 December 2016, in which SAMI participated.
We still have places available on our training courses in January and March. A half-day “Introduction to Futures Thinking” on January 23rd and March 30th 2017 aimed at those wishing to understand the basics and decide how the approach might work in their organisation; and a “hands-on” two-day workshop for strategists where you learn to build scenarios yourself – on January 26/27 and March 27/28th 2017. Contact email@example.com for more information.
This infographic shows how the Internet of Things will affect payment systems, in the home and the car.
Medical advances abound
And on the societal front, France’s “right to disconnect” law came into force on January 1st. This prevents companies from contacting employees in the evening, at weekends or on holiday whether by phone, email or anything else. Details will be worked out over the next 3 months. Would that work in the Anglo-Saxon work culture?
Recent blog posting has been quieter than usual over the holiday season but we hope you caught the book reviews in time to add to your reading list and saw our review of the recent ESPAS conference along with our greetings for a Happy New Year!
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