A recent EC Joint Research Council paper, “Thinking the unthinkable”, explored the question of whether technological accidents caused by natural hazards (Natech accidents) are real “Black Swans”. A “Black Swan”…
Category: Scenarios
Global Trends 2040 – Five scenarios
This is the last post in our series on the US National Intelligence Center Global Trends report – “A more contested world”. NIC produced five scenarios for 2040, as a…
GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 – “A more contested world”
Every four years, the US National Intelligence Center produces its Global Trends report. The 7th edition, published this year, reflects on the way global trends and dynamics are creating “a…
Factors in developing scenarios for the future of London
The combination of the UK’s departure from the EU, and the coronavirus pandemic, has caused uncertainty across the UK business ecosystem. As the UK’s largest city and the contributor of…
The Future of London looks uncertain
The future prosperity of the United Kingdom depends in no small part on Financial Services, mostly based in London. This blog therefore sets out one scenario for the future of…
World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2021
Although the usual festival of the rich didn’t happen at Davos this year, the WEF did produce its usual annual report on global risks – the 16th edition. The analysis…