Foresight and Strategy 2021
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October 2021
A lot of our conversations recently have been about robustness and resilience – about how to introduce a confidence in the future into organisations and companies. It is hardly a surprise – whilst vaccinations have reduced the death and hospitalisation rates from Covid, in the UK at least infection rates continue to soar. In the US, daily death rates remain above 1,500. And this at a time when we are meant to be “coming out of the pandemic”.
It’s becoming increasingly clear the pandemic has created problems of its own – supply chain crises, a worldwide energy crunch, and inflation. And it has masked others, as instability remains rife and climate pressures become more acute. Even the somewhat mediocre goals of COP26 are out of reach. The IEA says that under current projections, carbon use will drop by just 40% by 2050.
So now it’s about developing resilience – in governments, civil society and companies. Scenarios are an excellent way to generate, as we say, “robust decisions in uncertain times”. We’ve been surprised, and pleased, to see how many people are starting to get it. If you’d like to talk resilience, get in touch. We’ve got some good ideas.
The first session of the second round of the SAMI Cohort was held recently. The Cohort is a small group of professionals working in foresight and scenario planning, who gather every couple of months to learn from each other and SAMI staffers in a mutually supportive online environment. Cohort members choose the topics for discussion. Further members are welcome. Contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk for further information.
On November 4th, SAMI is running a free webinar on Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland’s recently published book ‘New Shoots: people making fresh choices in a changing world’. The book provides evidence of the forces at work to help people make sense of these changes. It explores levers for change and includes snapshots of projects and people innovating and adapting. The book is designed to empower people to take action. The co-authors will use some examples from the book to explain why a combination of social change and technology makes them optimistic about the future. Sign up here.
SAMI has published a new Working Paper, a review of the US National Intelligence Center’s report: “Global Trends 2040: A more contested world”. Find it on the Presentations and Reports page of our website.
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 22nd to 26th November. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques – the basis of the GOS Futures Toolkit – is available on our website.
Futures Issues
Malaria parasites in Africa have developed resistance to a key family of drugs – artemisinin and its relatives – used to protect against them. Mutations are causing an observable drop in antimalarials’ ability to quickly treat people with the disease.
Optic fibres can be configured as vibration sensors eg identifying a nearby digger, and alerting its owner that it is in danger of being dug up. A city’s installed installed base of fibre could be turned into sensors that removes the need for IoT devices.
A review by Thomas Frey of developments in construction identifies modular construction, 3D printing construction, and robotic bricklaying as having the most impact, in an environment of a declining workforce and increasing costs.
Recent reports of China testing a new hypersonic missile delivery system have been denied by the Chinese government. Hypersonic missiles have been a concern since before Russia’s successful Zircon tests in October of last year. The concern is not so much speed – ballistic missiles are faster – but in manoeuvrability. Hypersonic missiles can change direction in flight, rendering anti-ballistic missile systems ineffective.
In trials of a robotic milking machine, combined with automated feeding and cleaning systems, cows chose to make 3.7 visits each day to be milked compared with twice daily milking on the traditional system. The average daily milk yield per cow has increased to 39 litres and resting time has lengthened by three hours daily, benefitting fertility.
In his new book, “The Power of Geography: Ten Maps That Reveal the Future of Our World”, Tim Marshall explores ten regions that are set to shape global politics in a new age of great-power rivalry.
China’s largest battery manufacturer intends to invest $5 billion in a battery recycling factory. The new factory will recycle used battery materials and produce materials including lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobaltite, and cathode materials such as graphite and phosphoric acid. Chinese law imposes a duty on battery manufacturers to be responsible for recycling their products when they reach the end of their useful life.
WHO has issued its first global report on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in health with six guiding principles for its design and use. The growing use of AI for health presents governments, providers, and communities with opportunities and challenges.
Our Blogs
In our blogs we have continued our short series on Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland’s new book with a look how thinking on the issue of limits to growth has changed since the publication of the book of that name in the 1970s. We also examined the recent report by the Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology on Smart Cities which reviewed the wide range of issues facing these cities and acts as a good introduction to the overall topic. Most recently we have begun a short series looking at the upcoming COP26 meeting with a closer look at the first of their goals – that of ‘net zero by mid-century’.
If you’d like to receive reminders when our blogs are published, then check the link on our website or if you would like to write a blog for us, then please contact us here
September 2021
We are very proud to announce the publication of the Strategic Intelligence Foresight System for the European Commission’s Research and Innovation Directorate.
In the words of the Director General of Research and Innovation, M Jean-Eric Paquet, the project will “support and complement the strategic foresight efforts of all the DGs concerned with the preparation of the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe and its future work programmes”
This is a very comprehensive project, delivering an entire system for testing policy against the future. SAMI developed the Strategic Intelligence Foresight Framework – a comprehensive set of 44 scenarios (4 global scenarios and forty scenarios for ten global regions), as part of a collaborative project known as SAFIRE with the Commission and our partners, I|FOK, Cadmus and the Danish Board of Technology.
In its development of an comprehensive foresight system, SAFIRE is ground-breaking. We are privileged to be part of it and look forward to seeing its use within the EU.
To find out more about SAFIRE, and how we can apply our skills and expertise to futures and foresight projects, please get in touch.
A second round of the SAMI Cohort is just beginning. The Cohort is a small group of professionals working with foresight and scenario planning, who gather every couple of months to learn from each other and SAMI staffers in a mutually supportive online environment. Cohort members choose the topics for discussion. Further members are welcome. Contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk for further information.
SAMI is running a free webinar on Gill Ringland and Patricia Lustig’s new book “New Shoots – people making fresh choices in a changing world” on November 4th.
Huw Williams presented an updated version of his Key Drivers of Change presentation to the Derby and Nottingham branch of CQI. If you’d like a copy, or to talk about the major drivers of change, please contact him at huw.williams@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A major review of “42 select books by futurists past and present” included SAMI Principal Patricia Lustig’s highly respected “Strategic Foresight: Learning from the Future”.
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 22nd to 26th November. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques – our version of the GOS Futures Toolkit – is available on our website.
Futures Issues
Over the summer, the IPCC produced another hard-hitting report on global heating: “Climate change: widespread, rapid and intensifying” . They conclude: “The biggest uncertainty in all climate-change projections is how humans will act.” This at the time that the Amazon rainforest has become a net carbon emitter.
Russia announced it had successfully tested a hypersonic cruise missile, fired from a warship, that travelled at around seven times the speed of sound before hitting a ground target more than 350 km away. The combination of speed, manoeuvrability and altitude of hypersonic missiles makes them difficult to track and intercept – the Russians claim it can evade a U.S.-built missile shield.
Electroflight and Rolls-Royce are developing a single-seater aircraft that they hope will soon break the world speed record for an electric aircraft by travelling at more than 480km/h (300mph). To help keep the weight down they have housed the battery system in a carbon fibre shell. Experts think however that for longer flights we are going to need hydrogen or alternative green fuels.
Electric VTOL taxis are due to launch in Sao Paulo by 2025. Sao Paulo, with a population of 12 million, is one of the world’s most congested cities.
Astronomers are concerned that internet satellites will interfere with observations of the night sky. About 2,000 have been launched over the past 2 years. Tens of thousands of satellites could be added to Earth orbit in the next few years to provide broadband Internet, if companies and governments build and launch all the networks, or ‘megaconstellations’, they have publicly announced.
Researchers have developed a new kind of material with adjustable and reversible properties. This new smart fabric is 3D printed with interlinked particles, like chain mail. Applying pressure jams the particles together and the fabric becomes stiff and solid until the pressure is released. This unusual property could be useful for reusable casts and other medical applications.
A herd of cows has been “potty-trained” in an experiment that scientists say could pave the way for more environmentally friendly farms. Waste from cattle farms often contaminates soil and waterways and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and the acidification of soil.
Our Blogs
Since our last newsletter we have published a number of blogs on a variety of subjects. Back in July we looked at an FCA report on the use of artificial intelligence in financial services, from automation to machine learning and data analysis and we considered possible implications. We then moved to examine a report from the Hoover Institute which explored the strategic and policy directions that China may follow looking, in particular, at possible scenarios for China -USA relations. Following this, we shared some thoughts on action learning, our experiences with our Futures Cohort and our plans for our continuing Futures Cohorts. As the summer holidays started, we looked at some thoughts and ideas on how scenario planning informs strategy, using a variety of responses to the pandemic as examples.
After a summer break we returned to the topic of resilience, which we have discussed as a way for organisations to deal with the unexpected, and looked at why, whilst resilience is good to build, it is not a sufficient foresight strategy. We then published the first in a series of blogs based on a new book (to be published this autumn) by Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland. This first blog looked at issues arising from the worldwide falling birth rates and the implications of these. Lastly we published a blog which looked at four recent reports of futures work and scenarios from the OECD, Imperial College Foresight, Shell and the International Energy Agency.
If you’d like to receive reminders when our blogs are published, then check the link on our website or if you would like to write a blog for us, then please contact us here.
August 2021
No publication
July 2021
“Resilience” is flavour of the month. All the top consultancies are running programmes or re-branding previous work – we’ve commented on some in our blogs recently. But we’ve noted a worrying blindspot in the approaches – a belief in maintaining the status quo in the face of “unprecedented” events. Change is inevitable, often to be welcomed, and sometimes to be engineered. At SAMI we relish exploring the alternative futures described in scenarios, their advantages and challenges, and opportunities for action. Relatively few crises are true “black swans”.
We are also keen to encourage clients to exploit the opportunities of change that crises create, becoming “anti-fragile” in Taleb’s terms. We are working on a more extensive version of our thoughts on resilience – “To resilience and beyond” – for future blogs and Working Papers. If you’d be interested in a webinar on the topic, please contact us at info@samiconsulting.co.uk.
The “heat dome” over North-West Canada and USA, with its consequent wildfires and droughts creates another spur to thinking about resilience – or “adaptation” as it is termed in the climate emergency lexicon. Thinking through the implications of a similar event in the UK or Europe should be high on the to-do list of authorities and major organisations everywhere. Identifying the second-order effects can be crucial too: in Canada the helicopters they’d planned to use to put out fires were themselves put out of action by overheated engines. Internet back-up centres use huge amounts of air-con – can they survive extended power outages?
The last in our first series of SAMI cohort was held this week. We are now recruiting for a second phase where in a small group with other professionals you can explore the issues surrounding your foresight work. Cohort members choose the topics for discussion. Contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk if you are interested.
Our series of blogs on the effect of the pandemic on drivers of change has been consolidated into a new Working Paper, available our website. Other Working Papers on climate change, and the US National Intelligence Center Global Trends report will be available shortly.
Huw Williams is presenting an updated version of his Megatrends presentation to the Derby and Nottingham branch of CQI. If you’d like a copy, or to talk about the major drivers of change, please contact him at huw.williams@samiconsulting.co.uk. The Government Office for Science’s Foresight team has itself produced a “Trend Deck” of 10 major drivers of change. These cover the usual areas – as identified in our MetaMegatrends document – but interestingly also have a focus on health, infrastructure and governance and law.
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 20th to 24th September. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques – our version of the GOS Futures Toolkit – is available on our website.
Futures Issues
The pandemic has meant challenges for the traditional exam system, with some moving online. These appear to be vulnerable to cheating, but maybe we should be encouraging research and collaboration rather than penalising it.
Getting CRISPR into the body to slice DNA in the tissues where it’s needed has been a challenge. In a medical first, researchers have injected a CRISPR drug into the blood of people born with transthyretin amyloidosis – a disease that causes fatal nerve and heart disease – and shown that it can shut down production of toxic protein by their livers.
A “brain stethoscope” attached to a sweatband around the head can convert the brain’s electrical signals into sound. As different types of sound can be associated with different brain illnesses, this provides a simple, non-invasive diagnostic tool.
Disruptive technologies are difficult to identify – markets are inefficient and slow to recognise genuine disruptive innovation or accept its impact until it has become blindly obvious. They do have two important characteristics: they typically present a different package of performance attributes – ones that, at least at the outset, are not valued by existing customers; and the performance attributes that existing customers value improve at such a rapid rate that the new technology can later invade those established markets.
The EU Joint Research Council recommend repurposing existing natural gas pipelines for hydrogen use as the most competitive hydrogen delivery solution. This reduces the costs of green hydrogen production. Chemical carriers such as ammonia or liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) become more economically competitive with longer delivery distances, opening up import options from suppliers located, for example, in Chile or Australia.
And a new solar powered hydrogen production system that operates at -20°C has been developed. This is of particular use in the Antartic, avoiding the needs to introduce potentially polluting fossil fuels into the delicate ecosystem.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) used a swarm of small drones to locate, identify and attack Hamas militants. Swarms are usually controlled by AI, so this may have crossed an ethical line.
Our Blogs
Our latest blogs have continued with our theme of resilience. Firstly we looked at the recent McKinsey report, following that of Boston Consulting Group, which identified 6 dimensions of resilience and proposed ways of changing organisatons to become more resilient. We then took the theme of a recent Tweet by Janice Turner about the need for plans for unlikely events and examined what does currently exist and what might need to be done to increase a country’s resilience to the unexpected. And, lastly, we published a blog about the trends underpinning the 4th Industrial Revolution which was taken from a recent speech given by Jonathan Blanchard Smith to a seminar run by APEC.
June 2021
We are now recruiting for a second SAMI cohort where in a small group with other professionals you can explore the issues surrounding your foresight work. Cohort members choose the topics for discussion. Contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk if you are interested.
Jonathan Blanchard Smith’s talk on the fourth industrial revolution, given as part of the recent APEC Symposium and Workshop went well – feedback included:
“Your participation in the APEC event was awesome “
“Redesigning the future”. Dr Wendy Schultz, SAMI Principal, spoke at a Chatham House event on 25th May. Designers, policymakers and thinkers discussed how radical design thinking can provide positive answers and innovative solutions to shape the future.
Wendy also delivered her talk “It’s Chaos Turtles All The Way Down” at the Global Foresight Summit, while Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland spoke about “Green Shoots: Humankind meets Future Shock”. Patricia also introduced the Association of Professional Futurists “Emerging Fellows” session.
Gill and Patricia also published a blogpost discussing the value of Environmental, Social and Governance measures.
“Expect the unexpected”, Huw Williams’ article on scenario planning appeared in Edge, the magazine of the Institute of Leadership and Management. For a copy please contact huw.williams@samiconsulting.co.uk. He is also due to talk to the Derby and Nottingham branch of the Chartered Quality Institute in July
SAMI Associate Garry Honey’s new book ‘Missed Risks’ will be published shortly. The book identifies several types of unseen and unspoken risks in an attempt to show boards where risk perception is critical.
A failure in part of Fastly’s Content delivery Network resulted in many high-profile websites being out of action for over an hour. The Guardian website was one of those affected – their tech guy said “Fastly incidents are relatively rare. It has been years since we had an incident anywhere close to this scale. It doesn’t make it any more likely that there will be future incidents.” Is that your approach to high-impact low probability events?
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 20th to 24th September. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques – our version of the GOS Futures Toolkit – is available on our website.
Futures Issues
The Bank of England is putting banks and insurers through three climate scenarios, including one in which governments fail to take further steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in average temperature increases of 3.3C and a 3.9-metre rise in sea levels.
Soaring demand for chips from a boom in sales of laptops, game consoles and mobile phones during the lockdown has exacerbated a shortage in the supply of computer chips that could last two years. If this forces companies into reusing chips and extending the life of certain types of computing technologies then that at least improves sustainability.
A new type of dairy substitute made from microalgae has been developed producing a milk comparable in nutritional value to cow’s milk, but is made using a fraction of the energy, land and water. It doesn’t taste like cow’s milk but it has a similar texture to nut-based milk.
A wave-power generator uses large macroalgae and mussels in its submerged structure to add drag and inertia. They experience only relatively little motion during operation, grow and regenerate naturally. And you end up with farmed mussels you can eat.
The US have trialled a drone interceptor system that fires strong string streamers to incapacitate the target’s rotors. Backed by an automated decision system, the interceptor can be used to defend convoys moving through populated areas where explosive defensive weapons could cause collateral damage.
With quantum computers theoretically able to crack conventional cryptography, quantum entanglement is being explored as a way of enabling unhackable conversations.
“Targeted dream incubation” can enable corporations to manipulate your dreams to include ads for their products. Smart speakers could become instruments of passive, unconscious overnight advertising.
And in a story that never goes away, the dream of flying cars continues. Proponents argue that autonomy will be far more powerful in the air than on the ground, and that it will enter our daily lives much sooner.
Our Blogs
In recent blogs we completed our short series on the US National Intelligence Center’s report on global trends to 2040 with a look at the scenarios they were suggesting. We followed this with an exploration of a paper from the EU Joint Research Council about thinking the unthinkable and ‘black swan’ events and continued our theme of dealing with the unexpected by looking at future proofing for resilience in the face of (apparently) unlikely events.
May 2021
Our SAMI Cohort continued with its 5th session this week. One of the attendees reported that “the sessions were full of insights and provided me a lot of food for thought and further considerations.” We are now recruiting for a second cohort where in a small group with other professionals you can explore the issues surrounding your foresight work. Cohort members choose the topics for discussion. Contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk if you are interested.
Jonathan Blanchard Smith received a very positive response to his talk on “Britain in 2030 – Four Post-Brexit Scenarios Revisited” to the Greater Manchester branch of the Chartered Quality Institute with a score of 9/10. Taking our “Four post-Brexit Scenarios” publication is his starting point, he re-examined the scenarios in the light of the withdrawal agreement. Comments included:
- “the most thorough and thoughtful discussion of Brexit I’ve yet heard”;
- “insightful”;
- “thoughtful and interesting“.
- “This was a high-quality, well thought-through and thought-provoking presentation – as interesting for its precise and methodical exposition of the method, as for its conclusions. Well worth attending.”
The Institute of Leadership and Management is publishing today an article by Huw Williams on scenario planning, called “Expect the Unexpected”. Using an example from SAMI’s work for the EU’s Health and Safety Agency (EU-OSHA), the article goes through each of the steps of a scenario planning project, from identifying key drivers, through creating scenarios to testing policies against each of them (“wind-tunnelling”).
Emeritus Fellow Gill Ringland gave a keynote address to the Association for Strategic Planning’s Virtual conference on the role of ethics in strategy. The keynote starts by asking why organisations need ethics – why is keeping to the law not enough? Using several examples of how the world is changing, Gill illustrates that ethical behaviour in business reduces risk and contributes to performance – that ethics is absolutely a central part of strategy.
On a lighter note, Robert Hickson on Sciblogs came up with a characterisation of futures reports.
We’ll take care to examine which of these we might be guilty of doing!
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 24th to 28th May 2021. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques – our version of the GOS Futures Toolkit – is available on our website.
Futures Issues
10% of Generation Z said they’re considering not having children so they can afford to retire early, compared to just 4% of Millennials, with the percentage being higher amongst those that lived in London with an average to higher paid job. This is on top of already falling fertility rates and the onset of a declining population.
In recognition of the inevitable, the United Mine Workers of America, the country’s largest union representing coal miners, announced that it supported a renewable energy future — provided that miners get “good-paying jobs” in return. A good signal of societal change.
Carbon capture and production is pushing its way onto the agenda. An exhibition a the Science Museum demonstrated how a range of products – vodka, toothpaste etc – can be made from captured carbon. And a Finnish company is developing a process to use airborne carbon to produce a healthy ingredient that looks like wheat flour and contains 50% protein
Hydrogen could be used to power electric vehicles more easily using a “liquid organic hydrogen carrier” which converts hydrogen into a liquid. The EVs could be refuelled like a petrol car with the liquid being re-converted on board, providing a simpler and cheaper alternative to onboard storage of compressed hydrogen.
In Uganda, drones are being tested as a way of delivering HIV drugs to 78 community groups and health facilities across the widely scattered Ssese islands. This could be an example of the Hype Cycle, with delivery drones finding a much narrower niche than originally touted.
Field trials of a robot weeding system will begin on October. A scout robot identifies broadleaf weeds, passes the information via an AI system to the killer robot, which uses electrodes to destroy the roots, meaning there is no need for herbicide. This is one of a number of Smart Agriculture developments now emerging.
A 3D-printed house now houses paying tenants. A robotic nozzle that squirts out a specially formulated cement, “printing ” 24 concrete elements according to an architect’s design, adding layer upon layer to create a wall to increase its strength. These were transported to the building site and placed on a foundation; roof and window frames were then fitted. The process will cut costs and environmental damage by reducing the amount of cement that is used. It also provides an alternative at a time when there is a shortage of skilled bricklayers.
Our Blogs
Since our last newsletter we have posted some more blogs looking at the US National Intelligence Center’s Global Trends report: one looking at the structural forces they identified and another looking at the emerging dynamics as they see them. We have also posted about the MIT review and list of technologies for 2021 and returned to the topic of AI as the EU published its proposals on the values and ethics in this field.
April 2021
The UK is slowly and carefully working its way to the end of what we are promised will be the last lockdown of the coronavirus pandemic. Whilst we appreciate that “slowly and carefully” are not normally words one would associate with the current government, we do see in them one of the more obvious coronavirus impacts: moving too fast, without foresight, and with minimal planning, has no benefits. We are hopeful that the lesson has been learned.
Indeed, we are seeing increased focus on foresight in the wider public sector in the UK. SAMI is currently working on projects for the public sector which illustrate what may be a systemic change – an understanding that scenario work, with its deep engagement in the whole galaxy of trends, the intensity of thinking developed in scenario generation workshops, and the creation of truly flexible plans, is preferable to single-point planning.
Two important reports from the US illustrate the point: the Global Trends analysis from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; and the same office’s unclassified Annual Threat Assessment. The latter “examines the diverse array of threats that exist against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, great power competition, and rapidly evolving technology.” Both are worth reading – and for those just who want the headlines take a look at Huw Williams’ blog.
Foresight, scenarios and trends. Is it possible that futures thinking is becoming mainstream? We would very much like to think so.
SAMI is pleased to welcome two new Associates:
Tanja Schindler: Tanja supports companies, start-ups and freelancers in understanding Futures Thinking as a holistic, sustainable and goal-oriented organizational and life direction. Formerly working for large German corporates in the industrial and lighting sector, she now supports organizations to transform their businesses successfully into the future. She also leads and contributes to Foresight projects at UNESCO, the EU Commission and WFP. She is the founder and guardian of the global community Futures Space. Her biography is here.
Harry Wilby: Harry specialises in scenario planning, crisis management, political advisory, and the implementation of business strategy. He has advised financial institutions on their operating models as well as their commercial and communications strategies. He has successfully managed and delivered projects for Coutts & Company on Brexit and ICB Ring-fencing. Harry’s biography is here.
Jonathan Blanchard Smith gave a talk on ” Britain in 2030 – Four Post-Brexit Scenarios Revisited” to the Greater Manchester branch of the Chartered Quality Institute. Taking our “Four post-Brexit Scenarios” publication is his starting point, he re-examined the scenarios in the light of the withdrawal agreement. Now the direction of travel is more clear, this was a useful opportunity to see what happens when scenarios become actual, and to think again about where we are – and where we may be going.
The Institute of Leadership and Management is publishing an article by Huw Williams on scenario planning, called “Expect the Unexpected”. Using an example from SAMI’s work for the EU’s Health and Safety Agency (EU-OSHA), the article goes through each of the steps of a scenario planning project, from identifying key drivers, through creating scenarios to testing policies against each of them (“wind-tunnelling”).
One of the attendees at our current SAMI Cohort reported that “the sessions were full of insights and provided me a lot of food for thought and further considerations.” We are now recruiting for a second cohort where in a small group with other professionals you can explore the issues surrounding your foresight work. Cohort members choose the topics for discussion – in the first group these included improving your horizon scanning, winning over internal customers, and examples of successful scenario planning. Please contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk if you are interested.
The blocking of the Suez Canal by a megaship is a lesson on resilience. Developing systems with single points of failure is a recipe for chaos. At the beginning of the month, Guardian writer Flora Lipo reported on plans to build a second canal. Where are the points of failure in your systems?
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 26th to 30th April 2021. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques – our version of the GOS Futures Toolkit – is available on our website.
Futures Issues
Four strains of bacteria, three of which were previously unknown to science, have been found on the space station. They may be used to help grow plants during long-term spaceflight missions in the future.
“Smart bricks” could act as supercapacitors to store energy and power your lighting. The bricks are coated with a conductive polymer made up of nanofibers that get absorbed in the porous structure of the bricks, eventually turning the whole brick into “an ion sponge” that conducts and stores energy.
Low power chips can convert contacts lenses into augmented reality displays to enhance the vision of people with diseases such as glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy, retinitis, pigmentosa, and macular degeneration.
The US Army is using Microsoft’s HoloLens AR to provide “enhanced situational awareness, enabling information sharing and decision-making in a variety of scenarios”. HoloLens is also enabling surgeons to match 3D images with what they are seeing front of them.
A second-hand car market for EVs is needed, both to increase their adoption and to reduce waste. It’s an interesting example of how tech adoption is about more than just the tech itself.
Custom-fitted mouthguards with sensors that measure collisions and direct impacts to the head could give a greater understanding of when rugby players potentially become at risk of concussion or head trauma.
A “smart forest” has been equipped with a system for real-time monitoring and warning on sounds specific to illegal logging operations. Acoustic sensors send sounds via the cloud to an AI system, which analyses them in real-time, and if noises such as chainsaws or cars are detected sends real-time alerts to an app installed on forest rangers’ phones.
Gucci sneakers for $17.99? The catch – they’re virtual! Their first ‘digital’ shoes can be worn only in virtual or augmented worlds online.
Our Blogs
Our blogs recently have looked at overviews of reports and articles looking at future trends and themes that may anticipate the future. In March we first considered resilience which a BCG blog argued that the focus on efficiency left us no longer resilient to crises such as the pandemic. Following that we reviewed a book edited by Riel Miller on futures literacy and anticipation. In April we reviewed an online event held by the Alan Turing Institute which explored the state, and future, of AI in the UK and latterly looked at the US National Intelligence Center’s report on Global Trends to 2040.
March 2021
As the UK shows signs of emerging – perhaps, and with a following wind – from its year long pandemic-imposed hibernation, two key plans have been published.
The EU published the strategic plans, and the first calls for the period 2021-2024, for Horizon Europe on 15 March. With a €95.5 billion budget, and extending out to 2027, Horizon Europe is the EU’s research and innovation framework programme.
The three pillars: Excellent Science, Global challenges and European industrial competitiveness, and Innovative Europe, will determine the direction of EU science and innovation for the next six years. Building on the success of the Horizon 2020 programme, Horizon Europe offers an intention, a direction and a funding pool.
We like to think we may have played a small part in this. The SAMI project for the Commission’s Research and Innovation Directorate generated reference scenarios for R&I across ten global regions. Deep and wideranging horizon scanning, workshopping, the invention of a new model of scenario generation and testing, and a comprehensive scenario report, all went to give the EU a comprehensive picture of its place in the R&I environment in four potential futures.
We continue our work within SAMI. Our regional specialists remain engaged with their regions; we shall be creating a scorecard process to identify the matching of the scenarios to the real world; and we look forward to engaging fully with Horizon Europe itself.
One day after the publication of Horizon Europe, the UK Government published its Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy. This is a review with a hugely ambitious aim – to set the direction of UK policy for years to come. The headlines – more nuclear weapons, fewer troops, the dangers of a future pandemic – are just the tips of the iceberg of a paper, and a transformation of thinking, that will affect all of our futures. We shall be examining the Review in detail in our blogs; and in the preparation work we are undertaking for a project specifically looking at defence and security in the future, about which more in a later newsletter.
Why do futures? In their brief guide to futures thinking and foresight the Government Office for Science cogently lay out the case:
Policies which are based on assumptions of how the world is today can limit our choices and put us in a position of constantly responding to change, rather than creating the conditions to achieve the future we want. By considering alternative plausible future worlds, based on trends, drivers, and external insight, we can develop more resilient policies with a better chance of delivering the outcomes we are seeking, whatever the future holds.
And they quote Bill Gates:
We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.”
They then go on to provide an introduction to the Futures Toolkit, a set of techniques that SAMI helped develop.
After the success of the SAMI Cohort , we are now recruiting for a second cohort. In a small group of other professionals you can explore the issues surrounding your foresight work, from improving your horizon scanning to winning over internal customers. Please contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk if you are interested.
SAMI Principals Patricia Lustig and Wendy Schultz have contributed podcasts to FuturePod. See Wendy’s item on “Evocative and Vivid Futures”, and Patricia’s piece on a “Very Practical Futurist”. Patricia and Gill Ringland also regularly publish blogs in Long Finance Pamphleteers most recently Foresight In The Time Of Covid-19 – How Next?
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 26th to 30th April 2021. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques – our version of the GOS Futures Toolkit – is available on our website.
Futures Issues
Major advances in AI are threatening to replace many medical roles such as radiologists. But maybe AI will simply be another tool used by medical professionals. Empathy, creativity and physical support may all continue to need humans. Nonetheless, there is a huge transformation coming.
Oranges falling from Seville’s trees cause a slippery hazard but now they are being put to good use – making electricity.
De-carbonising shipping has been a major challenge, but new advances in bio-ethanol technology have enabled Maersk to bring forward its carbon-neutral plans.
Global warming has opened up the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic during the month of February allowing a commercial vessel to sail from Jiangsu in China to the remote Arctic terminal of Sabetta in Russia. What was it carrying? Fossil fuel!
Falling sperm counts “threaten human survival”. Chemicals such as phthalates and bisphenol-A found in everyday plastics, and unhealthy lifestyle practices (smoking, marijuana, obesity) are disrupting our hormonal balance.
As people work more from home, and perhaps move to “Zoom Towns”, will the interest in self-driving cars increase? The argument is that cars will be needed only intermittently for specific tasks, and so shared vehicles will become more popular. And as your driving skills diminish through lack of use, self-driving cars become more necessary.
Missing physical contact during lockdown? Why not pay for a “cow cuddle”? Maybe not, they are the most dangerous larger animal in the UK in terms of human deaths.
Our Blogs
Recent blogs have focussed on trade, finance and the future of London. Firstly we looked at what the future might hold for world trade. We then explored possible futures for London, approaching this from two somewhat differing perspectives. One explored the possible threats of an uncertain future; the second blog examined possible opportunities and strengths.
February 2021
The very recent announcement of a roadmap out of lockdown in the UK comes as a relief. The astonishing speed of the invention, development and deployment of a wide range of vaccines, with impressive efficacy rates, is a testament to what properly funded and incentivised science can do. We have been struck by the awful and increasing number of deaths worldwide; but also of the differential rates of rollout, and the difference in preparedness to take the vaccine in the first place. These are, in a line we use in explaining our Three Horizons process, “pockets of the future in the present”: as William Gibson said in 1999 “The future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
Recognition of the need for scenario planning is extending ever-wider as people anticipate the speed and scale of disruption in the coming decade. The American Alliance of Museums’ produced a report to help museums “to forge on without knowing what lies ahead, dodging and weaving as new obstacles arise, constantly recalibrating their course towards a preferable future.” It goes on to describe the “Cone of Plausibility” and describe four future scenarios that can be used “as the seeds for longer narratives, building out these futures and envisioning how your museum might respond”.
The GameStop bubble caused lots of people to scratch their heads. One way of thinking about it is as a conjunction of weak signals of the kind that can be explored using Wendy Schultz’s Manoa method, creating unanticipated outcomes.
Patricia Lustig’s interview on the chapter she and Gill Ringland wrote for “50 Years after Future Shock” is now available on YouTube https://youtu.be/tR2htj76ZLU
SAMI Associate Keith Leslie’s new book “A Question of Leadership “launched on the 18th February. He provides a wide range of illustrative case studies derived from both research and his first-hand experience in the public and private sectors as a former partner at both Deloitte and McKinsey. See also our blogpost. Keith was also on Radio 4 ‘You and yours’ (streamed on BBC Sounds) talking about leadership and mental health.
After the success of the SAMI Cohort , we are now recruiting for a second cohort. In a small group of other professionals you can explore the issues surrounding your foresight work, from improving your horizon scanning to winning over internal customers. Please contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk if you are interested.
SAMI has a long history of academic engagement – Gill Ringland’s book Scenario Planning has been used on the Harvard Business School course for a while, for instance, so we were pleased this month to hear that our resources on horizon scanning have been taken into use for a major university’s business transformation courses.
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 22nd to 26th March 2021. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques is available on our website.
Futures Issues
A number of battery developments this month:
- Australian researchers have developed a battery the size of a large fridge, can be hooked up to an existing array of solar panels, and use that power to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is stored in a fibrous metal alloy. The unit can store three times as much power other wall-mounted batteries, allowing it to power the average household for two to three days on a single charge.
- A new approach to hydropower (using excess renewable power to pump water uphill for later release) could mean many more sites would be suitable for use as “hill batteries”. “High-intensity” hydro projects use a mineral-rich fluid, more than two and a half times the density of water, to create the same amount of electricity from slopes which are less than half as high.
- Batteries capable of fully charging in five minutes have been produced. Instead of the graphite used in existing Li-ion batteries which can get congested when charged rapidly, the StoreDot battery uses semiconductor nanoparticles into which ions can pass more quickly and easily. The cost would be the same as existing Li-ion batteries.
There were also several brain/computer integration stories:
- Neurotechnology company Neuralink could be launching trials, implanting an artificial intelligence chip in humans’ brains to control technology just by thinking. “later this year.”
- Conversely, work started on a project that uses human brain stem cells to power artificial intelligence (AI) devices. The project will show how neurons can be harnessed to supercharge computers’ ability to learn while dramatically cutting energy use.
- An intelligent material that is able to learn by changing itself physically, in the same way our brain does. The material that is able to store and process information in similar ways to a brain – and, like a brain, it is able to adapt itself.
Cutting-edge light design help plants to grow more sustainably – while being an artwork in itself. Photobiology light science technologies have shown that certain recipes of blue, red, and ultraviolet light can enhance plant growth and reduce the use of pesticides by up to 50%. You experience this as a poetic artwork of ‘dancing lights’ across a huge agricultural field.
Apartments on floating cities are going on sale.
And for further amusement:
- Spinach is now capable of sending emails. When the spinach roots detect the presence of nitroaromatics in groundwater the carbon nanotubes within the plant leaves emit a signal. This signal is then read by an infrared camera, sending an email alert to the scientists. The technology is known as “plant nanobionics”.
- Smart toilets fitted with technology that can detect a range of disease markers in stool and urine, have been discussed for a while. But the records need to relate to the individual using it. So the latest development adds added a small scanner that images a rather camera-shy part of the body. Your anal print is unique – this is the polar opposite of facial recognition.
Our Blogs
Since the start of 2021 our blogs have covered topics from vaccine nationalism to leadership. Firstly, though, we completed our short series on the future of cities by looking at city financing and economics, followed by an exploration of some of the political impacts. We then looked at the recent announcement of the EU Strategic Foresight Network at the ESPAS 2020 Conference. Issues relating to the current pandemic and vaccine rollout were explored in our next post; this was followed by a look at the recently published WEF Global Risks Report and, lastly, we were pleased to have a blog on the subject of leadership based on a new book written by SAMI Associate, Keith Leslie.
If you’d like to receive reminders when our blogs are published, then check the link on our website or if you would like to write a blog for us, then please contact us here.
January 2021
As always, many commentators have come up with their predictions for the year, tempered this year by what a shocking time 2020 was. Here’s the Atlantic Council’s top ten risks:
- The COVID-19 crisis deepens amid a slow vaccine rollout
- Trump remains a thorn in Biden’s side, as many of his supporters continue to believe his rule is illegitimate
- Massive global debt causes another financial crisis
- Western countries’ economic growth is stultified
- North Korea pressures Biden with new missile tests
- Iran remains recalcitrant despite Biden overtures
- US and China clash over Taiwan
- Disrupted food chains causes food crisis
- Expansion of global middle class comes to an end
- Turkey goes more rogue.
Surprisingly, the Atlantic Council list does not identify the political and economic impacts of climate change. For the UK, Brexit continues to be a disruptor, and not in a good way – logistics chains are under strain, the introduction of the new trading arrangements with Europe seems confused and administratively burdensome, particularly with respect to Northern Ireland – and, of course, the pressure on the fabric of the Union itself is only increasing.
Patricia Lustig and Jonathan Blanchard Smith ran “Gaming the Future – Scenario Game Play” based on SAMI’s work for EC Research and Innovation exploring how Trends can play out across four different scenarios as a demonstration for Futures Space, an online futurists community. For further information contact patricia.lustig@samiconsulting.co.uk.
SAMI Associate Keith Leslie’s new book “A Question of Leadership “ is to be launched on the 18th February. He provides a wide range of illustrative case studies derived from both research and his first-hand experience in the public and private sectors as a former partner at both Deloitte and McKinsey. Each chapter first provides an engaging narrative that presents a relatable leadership dilemma, before an analysis of what works and when (often reaching seemingly counterintuitive solutions), followed by a selection of research which supports this thesis and, finally, actionable advice for leaders who find themselves in comparable circumstances (or may do so in the future).
The Future-Proof Cities theme at the Manchester Urban Institute, led by Joe Ravetz,
explores the dynamics of change: how to understand and analyse it, how to manage and plan, how to experiment and learn, how to build capacity, and how to look ahead and envision viable futures.
Joe is also putting together the 2021 program of “Synergistic Conversations”
- Jan 22nd: Peri-urban-resilience 3.0: (with the Peri-cene at KTH Stockholm & IIT Madras)
- Jan 29th: Green–Local-onomics-3.0: (with the EC-JRC ‘Industrial transitions’ program).
- Feb 26th: Smart-wise-3.0: (with Shanghai Smart City Development Institute).
- Mar 26th (tbc): Food 3.0: (on-site with Camley St Community Land Trust, London)
Our SAMI Cohort programme is half-way through. It is proving to be a valuable resource for Cohort members, enabling them to improve their foresight activities by sharing experiences with others. We are now recruiting for a second cohort – please contact Jane.Dowsett@samiconsulting.co.uk if you are interested.
Executive Education
Our online course “Understanding the Future” will be run again on 22nd to 26th March 2021. The course fee is £490 + VAT, and discounts may be available for self-funded individuals. For more information, please email us at training@samiconsulting.co.uk.
A range of information on various futures techniques is available on our website.
Futures Issues
Google’s Deepmind AI program Alphafold was used to determine the 3D shapes of proteins. Many commentators suggest this would vastly accelerate efforts to understand the building blocks of cells and enable quicker and more advanced drug discovery.
Gene-editing tool CRISPR has been used to make cattle more resistant to climate change, which causes increasing problems with heat stress and fertility. Scientists sought to lighten the coats of cattle to make them more resilient to heat, because darker-coloured animals absorb more heat from sunlight, and so are more affected by warmer temperatures than lighter-coloured ones.
China plans to massively expand an experimental weather modification program to cover an area more than 1.5 times the total size of India. In the next five years, the total area covered by artificial rain or snowfall will reach 5.5 million sq km, while over 580,000 sq km will be covered by hail suppression technologies. The program will help with disaster relief, agricultural production, emergency responses to forest and grassland fires, and dealing with unusually high temperatures or droughts.
Researchers have discovered a cost-effective and efficient way of producing jet fuel from carbon dioxide. The method involves using CO2 captured from the air, which is converted with hydrogen (H2) using a process called hydrogenation and a catalyst made from a compound of iron, manganese and potassium to produce specific hydrocarbons.
Veebot, the “first robot phlebotomist”, uses a combination of infrared light and image analysis to detect a suitable vein, and then applies ultrasound to see if the vessel has sufficient blood flow. While it’s still in development, it can correctly identify the best vein with an accuracy of about 83%; comparable to an experienced technician. This means less room for painful errors and less time spent on the procedure.
Our Blogs
If you’d like to receive reminders when our blogs are published, then check the link on our website or if you would like to write a blog for us, then please contact us here.
Contact us
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- SAMI Consulting Ltd, 1 Toomers’ Wharf, Newbury, RG14 1DY, UK