Predictions for 2021?

Regular readers of our blogs will know that single point forecasts are not scenarios - and so pretty much useless for planning for the future. That said, in this blog, Garry Honey, a SAMI associate and founder of Chiron Risk, gives his view of the first few months of 2021. Predictions for 2021 Despite a difficult year for public health and the economy caused by the virus epidemic, we face that time again when tradition demands a forecast for the next year. At the time of writing we know that the UK will have left the EU, but we don’t know whether this will be with a trade deal or not. Nevertheless here is one view of the first few months of 2021 - January – Foreign Office halts policy of ‘habitual xenophobia’ and gunboat diplomacy. The EU has more gunboats and the French have threatened asymmetric warfare:  while British citizens would be free to live in France under ‘confinement’, all French property registered to a British citizen would be commandeered by the French state without financial compensation. February – Home Office takes control of entire Easy Jet fleet for new programme of mass deportation of aliens from the new sovereign state. This follows new government definition of ‘alien’ to include holders of any passports not blue. UK Border Force to be expanded to police both Welsh and Scottish borders following name change to EBA (English Border Agency). March – Business department to set up tax and tariff free zones around Southampton, Felixstowe and Harwich to promote import and export trade hubs trade as Freeports. Bi-lateral trade deals to be announced with interested parties in Sicily, Somalia and Colombia. Plans to mine the channel to deter foreign shipping subsequently quietly dropped. April – Health department finally agrees sale of NHS to American hedge fund for undisclosed fee. New owners promise to improve standards of service to bedrock services of GP surgeries and A&E departments to all registered citizens of the new sovereign state. Surgery appointments will require a UTR tax code and outpatient appointments an acceptable Experian credit score. May – Transport department decides to abandon Stonehenge tunnel as the government disputes UNESCO right to declare heritage sites within a sovereign state.  Transport secretary says: ‘The site was ripe for development anyway, and Wiltshire badly needs a nuclear power station’. The lorry park of Kent to be leased to France, and the channel tunnel to be closed and filled in. June – Education department agrees to new A levels sponsorship programme. These will now be free to anyone buying a Big Mac meal or KFC bucket. New one year university degrees launched with remote access only and no certificates for completion. Graduates receive an enamel badge for their lapel or tie with the word ‘Achiever’ clearly visible for job interviews. July – DCMS decides to promote the delayed Tokyo Olympic games, but refuses to back demands for popular track & field events to be accessible to BBC/ITV terrestrial channels, where rights for live coverage are bought by Sky and Amazon for pay TV customers.  DCMS manages to secure terrestrial TV live coverage for skateboarding and baseball. Aug – Treasury decides not to repeat the hospitality stimulus ‘Eat out to help out’ which it launched last August, but to replace it with ‘Stay home alone’ because the borders are shut. Treasury also decides that Universal Credit claims are costing the country money that could better be spent on HS2, Lighthouse Labs and other projects where accountability is more opaque.

Wishing you all the best for Christmas and 2021! Written by Garry Honey, SAMI Associate and founder of Chiron Risk The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting. SAMI Consulting was founded in 1989 by Shell and St Andrews University. They have undertaken scenario planning projects for a wide range of UK and international organisations. Their core skill is providing the link between futures research and strategy. If you enjoyed this blog from SAMI Consulting, the home of scenario planning, please sign up for our monthly newsletter at newreader@samiconsulting.co.uk and/or browse our website at http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk Image by Arek Socha from Pixabay