We are observing that the changes that mark the end of the historic phase of economic growth throughout the last century, mean that it’s increasingly difficult to make decisions. Yet the quality of decisions made by organisations and governments affects us all: decisions made with old paradigm assumptions may not take advantage of the range of opportunities presented by the new, emerging paradigm.
The Possibility Wheel: Making Better Choices in a Fractured World, is our (Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland) new book which tackles the need for tools to address new challenges facing decision makers today – how to combine a realistic view of changing paradigms with the imminent threats of disruptive change.
What our book is about
We consider ourselves pragmatic optimists, seeing times of change as times of potential. The challenges endemic in today’s world may bring risk, but they also bring opportunity. We’ve observed that those who approach change with pragmatic optimism and curiosity are more willing to innovate, learn, and adapt. They have the energy to take new ideas forward and the self-confidence to try. If you have the courage to believe that you can make a difference, this book will show you how to identify, shape, and seize possibilities: it aims to spark curiosity and empower you to spot opportunities rooted in real-world evidence.
It provides a descriptive and analytical framework. This framework helps you interpret global trends and disruptions, enabling robust decision-making in your local environment. It guides you to make sense of today’s complex, confusing and often fractured landscape. It begins with a clear acknowledgment that the world is messy, and that evidence can easily be misinterpreted.
The framework has two pillars:
· Forces for Change — visible, paradigm-shifting outcomes which are shaping the world — and
· Threats - the disruptive forces driving transformation.
The book supports developing and expanding possibilities by providing positive glimpses of change – short stories based on real world examples about influencing the long-term future – to help you imagine what you can influence in your world and how to do it. Our focus is to help you find the opportunities, as well as explore ways to mitigate and adapt to potential risks as they develop.
But making informed decisions in a shifting world requires more than just analysis and sensemaking. That’s why the book offers a practical toolset built on our framework, to help you understand how global shifts impact your local and organisational contexts. The toolset encourages you to focus on resilient choices and explore a broader range of possibilities, thereby enabling smarter, more adaptive decisions.
This enables you to explore potential futures through evidence of what is happening in the world today.
What’s New in This Book
This book defines a new concept, and provides a new toolset.
The new concept came as we developed our analysis of the Threats. The three threats that we initially chose (Global Heating, Breakdown in International Relations and Collapse of Global Health) all had measurable outcomes. However, we soon realised that there was something connecting them – threads that join up and influence the outcomes from these three Threats.
We called these connectors ‘Backbones’.
Backbones are agreed upon sets of rules which support the way that things work. They are based upon the rule of law and shared assumptions. Backbones cover many aspects of life such as financial services, governance, and international (technical and professional) standards.
We noticed that the impact of the three initial Threats would depend on the existence or otherwise of successfully functioning Backbones.
Then we observed that a number of Backbones which have been important over the past decades are no longer fit for purpose: fractured or fracturing, rather than evolving. The book explores how breakdowns in foundational systems and rules impact today’s political, societal, and economic structures.
The new toolset is named The Possibility Wheel.
The Possibility Wheel is a structured brainstorming tool to support decision making through organising your thinking about potential Threats, future events, issues, Forces for Change (trends) and strategy. It is a tool to encourage imagination and ‘what if?’ thinking which will help you develop your opportunities.
It is used to explore which Threats might affect a decision you need to make. It identifies and maps connections, causalities and impacts of a specific Threat on future events, trends, issues or strategies. It allows you to gain a deeper, shared understanding of how this Threat may play out, and its effect on Forces for Change. It helps you to widen the discussion about consequences (some possibly unintended).
The Possibility Wheel is designed for use by a team, so that it builds a shared understanding of, and insights into, the impacts and consequences of this Threat on the decision you need to make.
We aim to show you that the future does not need to be overwhelming… nor scary. We provide tools to increase your agency and your sense of agency. By considering the causes of change we provide a more holistic view of the world in which we all live, which helps you to see the beginnings of potential future opportunities.
In summary, we hope the book will prove useful to you navigating the future’s many challenges.
Written by Patricia Lustig, SAMI Principal and Gill Ringland, SAMI Emeritus Fellow.
The Possibility Wheel: Making Better Choices in a Fractured World is available from the publishers here and from booksellers including Amazon.
Over the years SAMI have explored many tools to help people make robust decisions in uncertain times in a variety of external and internal (organisational) environments. Our experience is captured in the range of tools included in the UK Government Office of Science Futures Toolkit.
Other books by the authors include the award-winning Strategic Foresight: Learning from the Future by Patricia Lustig and, with Gill Ringland, New Shoots, Megatrends and how to survive them, and Here be Dragons: Navigating an Uncertain World. Patricia has been a Board Member of the Association of Professional Futurists, and led their Emerging Fellows programme.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.
Achieve more by understanding what the future may bring. We bring skills developed over thirty years of international and national projects to create actionable, transformative strategy. Futures, foresight and scenario planning to make robust decisions in uncertain times. Find out more at www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Commentaires