Every four years, the US National Intelligence Center produces its Global Trends report. The 7th edition, published this year, reflects on the way global trends and dynamics are creating “a…
Tag: scenarios
Vaccine nationalism?
Nine months ago I wrote an article for the Journal of Future Studies looking at four alternative post pandemic scenarios. This was also later carried on the SAMI website. Although…
Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios
We’re hearing a lot from Government about “reasonable worst-case scenarios” at the moment. At first sight it seems sensible. We need to think beyond the “base case” or “central case”,…
Looking to the future from an uncertain present
I was in a meeting a little while ago when someone asked “can we really make scenarios of the future when the present is so uncertain?” It’s a question I’ve…
Pandemic-3.0 – from crisis to transformation – part II
The first part of this blog explored the context – ‘what if’ the pandemic is contained, OR it continues (with mutations, policy failures, medical gaps etc)? And then, ‘what if’…
Pandemic-3.0 – from crisis to transformation
At terrifying speed the Covid-19 global pandemic has brought a multitude of deaths, the lock-down of half the world’s population, and the decimation of its economy. The material facts of…