Nine months ago I wrote an article for the Journal of Future Studies looking at four alternative post pandemic scenarios. This was also later carried on the SAMI website. Although…
Tag: scenarios
Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios
We’re hearing a lot from Government about “reasonable worst-case scenarios” at the moment. At first sight it seems sensible. We need to think beyond the “base case” or “central case”,…
Looking to the future from an uncertain present
I was in a meeting a little while ago when someone asked “can we really make scenarios of the future when the present is so uncertain?” It’s a question I’ve…
Pandemic-3.0 – from crisis to transformation – part II
The first part of this blog explored the context – ‘what if’ the pandemic is contained, OR it continues (with mutations, policy failures, medical gaps etc)? And then, ‘what if’…
Pandemic-3.0 – from crisis to transformation
At terrifying speed the Covid-19 global pandemic has brought a multitude of deaths, the lock-down of half the world’s population, and the decimation of its economy. The material facts of…
What do you do when a “wildcard” hits? Thoughts from a futurist
We’ve all read loads of prognostications about how the coronavirus outbreak will change the world – or not. But it got us thinking more generally about “wildcards” and what to…