We normally work with clients on long-term futures and major megatrends, so we don’t usually pay a lot of attention to passing fashions. We do keep track of changing social attitudes by watching the British Social Attitudes surveys, from the National Centre for Social Research, as we think fundamental changes there can have major implications. But a report from market research company Mintel caught our eye as it did try to go beneath the surface of consumer behaviour to more structural issues which could have more ramifications over time.
Across five distinct themes, the report examines what’s been happening recently, what they think is coming next and perhaps most interestingly what the future might hold. To this I’ve added some of my own thoughts on how the themes may play out.
Their first theme is “Being Human”, which explores people’s relationship with technology. In their view, initial interest in and concern about AI and robotics is moving on to a more clear-sighted recognition of the opportunities and stresses they bring. People are looking to balance exploitation of the capabilities with control over them, elevating and valuing more highly aspects which are distinctively human – “emotions, empathy, creative ideas and the desire to connect with fellow human beings”.
As well as being a driver for upskilling to embrace the technology, there may be a debate about how much protection workers need from automation. Looking further ahead, as a pre-tech world becomes a distant memory, there may be even more of a premium on “artisan” products or in-person activities.
It’s interesting to see that AI need not be regarded simply as an unstoppable Juggernaut rolling over everyone. Instead, if we structure society better, it can be a liberating force freeing up people to take on more fulfilling roles.
The second theme is “More than money”, meaning a greater concern for values. Mintel suggest that people will be more careful in their choices, assessing what really matters to them as well as price. Perhaps paradoxically, sustainability, convenience and heritage will feature more strongly in buying decisions – the quality if the experience will increase in importance. “Consumers are affiliating themselves with brands that represent their values, but this is a double-edged sword; they are also abandoning (loudly) the brands that don’t align with their values.”
As the pace of change increases, there is a need to hold onto established values, so history, tradition and longevity become more important. Trust, authenticity and integrity are becoming key – with backlashes against “green-washing” and other superficial ploys.
Other research has shown that Gen Z is indeed more concerned about climate change and sustainability. But because of a more challenging financial environment, they can be more risk-averse and fearful. It seems doubtful that this will translate into paying a premium for products that align with their values, though it may mean that they are more likely to seek employment with organisations that do.
Next is “Relationship Renaissance” – new forms of intimacy in real-life, in-person relationships. Online, screen-based communication is becoming so prevalent that many feel the lack of direct personal contact. Whether for one’s mental health or simply for fun a reaction to this can be expected. Office and social life has not returned to its pattern before the pandemic. “Hybrid working” is more the norm, and, according to Mintel, only 23% of people in the UK are going out socially as much as they did pre-pandemic.
The desire for relationships means that communal activities begin to replace “self-care”. This could lead to a wider sense of community and activism to address issues such as climate change. It also suggests that there is a limit to the extent that virtual services will take over and that a natural equilibrium will be achieved even as technological capabilities improve.
In “New Green Reality”, the report explores how people are recognising the need for activism on climate change – “eco-apathy” is being challenged. We need to do more than recognise the problem, when even hitting Net Zero won’t be enough to avoid all the impacts of historic carbon emissions. There need to be messages of hope, rather than fatalism. Greater, honest, consistent transparency is required to avoid mistrust.
Innovations ahead of regulation will be the hallmark of forward-looking companies. The report discusses the development of the meat alternative market as an example of balancing existing and ingrained attitudes with a desire to address climate issues – and concludes this is difficult.
Trust and reassurance are key to building engagement with change. They are essential components in building a feel-good factor, a sense of purpose, possibility and optimism.
The last theme is “Positive Perspectives” – ways of dealing with uncertainty. As the report points out, the geo-political situation, climate change and technological advances such as AI can create de-stabilising levels of uncertainty across society. And their solution again is an honest embrace of the challenges combined with a positive and actionable approach. Uncertainty creates opportunities as well as challenges.
The report recognises that bringing simple answers to complex problems can be a route to populism. Although difficult to do, bringing a sense of purpose to people’s lives, helping them find a deeper sense of meaning and purpose is seen as the ideal way forward. Developing resilience to the inevitable shocks is essential. The suggestion is that an increase in mindfulness and a willingness to address one’s mental health issues will reduce anxiety and lead to empowerment.
Mintel’s report is focused mainly on what brands should do to respond to changing consumer behaviour. They claim that “our trends are backed by robust data and expert opinions, ensuring that what you read here is meaningful and actionable rather than guesswork, abstract ideas, a viral fad”. Their conclusions are based on market research in a wide range of countries – US, UK, Canada, Germany; China, Thailand, India, Singapore; Brazil.
There is an underlying “worthiness” in their recommendations probably reflecting the authors’ belief that brands win by being “good”, which may not reflect some of the real-world challenges consumers face. However, the underlying analysis is important more widely.
Recognising how attitudes may impact wider societal developments is of interest to us as futurists as well. There are wider implications and other conclusions to be drawn from these changing attitudes.
Written by Huw Williams, SAMI Principal
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of SAMI Consulting.
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Featured image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay
