We’re hearing a lot from Government about “reasonable worst-case scenarios” at the moment. At first sight it seems sensible. We need to think beyond the “base case” or “central case”,…
Category: Decision making
Compromise risk: ‘cake-and- eat-it’ syndrome
Viral epidemics have been part of human civilisation for centuries. Black Death in the fourteenth and Plague in the seventeenth, are only the most famous but there were many more…
Political risk & the right strategy
Selecting the right risk mitigation strategy is always a matter of choice, the future is uncertain and the default human response tends to be risk aversion. Some uncertainties can be…
Looking to the future from an uncertain present
I was in a meeting a little while ago when someone asked “can we really make scenarios of the future when the present is so uncertain?” It’s a question I’ve…
Do we really understand risk?
A recent report from the National Audit Office revealed the government failed to understand the risk to the Treasury for the HS2 rail project from the outset in 2010. Shortly…
Megatrends and how to survive them – conclusions
Megatrends and How to Survive Them is the title of our book published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing and available on Amazon. This is the last of a series of blogs based on the work we…